Millya defection: What it means ahead of 2015

By The Citizen Reporters Dar/Arusha/Dodoma: News yesterday on the defection to the Opposition of CCM youth leader for Arusha Region, Mr James ole Millya, drew varied reactions, but all in all, it was largely seen as a pointer to unraveling political realignments ahead of the 2015 General Election. While top officials of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi dismissed the defection inconsequential, the Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) where Millya was reportedly headed revelled over its significance as a boon to the Opposition’s political fortunes. Meanwhile, independent political analysts were harsh in their interpretation, warning that CCM could be staring at political exodus never experienced before as competing political players in its ranks move to court new bedmates to safeguard their future interests. Mr Millya’s quitting as UVCCM regional chairman was also telling, coming in the wake of CCM’s loss in the recent Arumeru East by-election and a similar blow to Chadema when the High Court annulled the election of Mr Godbless Lema as its Arusha Urban MP.  Observers also note that as a young leader of one of the UVCCM factions in Arusha, Mr Millya was out to ruffle the CCM nest by flexing muscles using his significant following in the area among a youthful block that has struggled within the ruling party to elbow out well established but conservative opponents. His defection, it was noted, would spite CCM that was trying to rebuild its machinery to regain supremacy that it lost to the opposition in the larger Arusha and surrounding Kilimanjaro regions during the 2010 General Election.    Millya told a news conference in Arusha that he was quitting CCM and joining Chadema, telling The Citizen: “I will explain reasons why I have quit the party in l due course.” A University of Dar es Salaam senior lecturer, Dr Benson Bana, said CCM should accept the reality that the party was fast losing its popularity and that Chadema was now taking off. He said the reason for the defection could be traceable to the 2010 General Election outcome in which Millya and his supporters were at loggerheads with some party leaders. He added that the defection should alert CCM of possible and more realignment in future. “Losing a cadre with massive convincing power like Millya is not a joke; CCM should think critically on how to face such challenges, Chadema is now going up and CCM is falling,” he said.  “Many members of the party who back Millya might also decide that it is time to go,” he said, adding that many independent parties in Africa have since collapsed. He gave examples of the Kenya African National Union, the United National Independence Party of Zambia, among others. According to Dr Bana, if the situation continues like this, CCM should prepare to become an opposition party come 2015. A professor of political science and public administration, Mwesiga Baregu, told The Citizen that CCM was in a downfall, claiming that more members were expected to leave. He said the recent by-election in Arumeru East demonstrated that the party’s ranks, especially among the youth, were divided. The loss in the race was attributed to a division among the ruling party’s campaign team. However, Prof Baregu who lecturers at the St Augustine University and is a key Chadema official, said the opposition camp should tread carefully with new members trooping in. But in a quick response, CCM’s secretary general Wilson Mukama said Millya’s exit was a blessing in disguise because from the look of things, he would have been expelled sooner or later anyway. Mr Mukama said Millya had been warned over various incidents of misconduct. He said the youth leader was a pain within the party and that his decision to leave was a relief.  The national UVCCM secretary general, Mr Martin Shigella, reiterated that Millya’s move would not shake CCM because he was already a big problem. He said the youth wing will meet soon to replace him. Meanwhile, the Chadema deputy Secretary General, Mr Zitto Kabwe, commended Mr Millya for his move. Chadema secretary for Arusha region Amani Golugwa said the CCM cadre quit because the ruling party was no longer serving the interests of wananchi. “He told us frankly that he was fed up with CCM and does not see the party reorganising itself to carry out its public mandate,” Mr Golugwa said. Millya’s ditching of CCM also happened as rumours indicated he was not happy when the party overlooked him in the choice of the region’s candidate for the East Africa Legislative Assembly contest. Reported by Florence Mugarula in Dar es Salaam, Zephania Ubwani in Arusha and Peter Nyanje in Dodom